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Midweek Market 25 April 2019

Apr 25th, 2019 No comments

Executive summary

Quote for the week: “The scariest single statistic worldwide is the dramatic decline in the marginal productivity of debt. China, like the US, is getting progressively less return for each newly-created debt. There’s a point at which new borrowing doesn’t just produce less wealth but actually destroys it. The US and China are heading that way fast, while Europe might be there already”.


Equity markets continue to edge up towards the top with the Dow Jones now at a triple top and indicating classic symptoms of exhaustion and trend change, with fractured divergent behaviour, lower volumes and volatility, along with extreme optimism and euphoria. US Treasuries have normalised in resuming their long term bear market which is the precursor to the start of the equity bear market.

The US dollar increased strongly this week with every indication of the index continuing up towards $100.00 or above. This is corrective, however, and once complete the dollar will resume its long term weakening trend.


Precious Metals and miners continue their weakening trend which is not complete. It is likely to retrace some of the declines in the short term before completing the down cycle in due course.

US Dollar

The US dollar index continues to increase into the rising wedge with multiple breakouts in a strong rise this week. The oscillators are rising and price is well ahead of all the MAs and looks set to move higher as the cycle turns up.

The dollar barrier triangle pattern has a breakout through the BD horizontal and is now technically set to catapult the dollar index up to $100.00 or higher, providing E(B) holds and is not penetrated on the downside. From an Elliott Wave point of view the longer and stronger wave 3 has started and will lead on to complete the corrective (A)(B)(C) before the next impulsive 5 wave down.

The short term 3 month chart illustrates the strong thrust up in dollar value this week with breakouts through the 2 previous peaks. Price is well above the MAs and the oscillators are rising in support of a stronger dollar.

Japanese Yen

The Yen continues to weaken against the resurgent dollar and, despite any short term retracement, is likely to continue weakening as the US$ barrier triangle plays out to completion. The Yen will continue to weaken well up into the resistance region, together with the implications for a weaker gold price.

US Treasuries

The benchmark US 10 year Treasury yield has bottomed and is increasing as US bond values weaken. The Elliott Wave 1-2 is now launching into the longer and stronger wave 3, having bottomed at 2 C(circle) (5). Any short term retracement potential needs to play out before wave 3 increases yield to above the Feb 2019 high and potentially even the Oct 2018 high.

This will confirm and resume the earlier collapse in the bond market which has been disrupted by a 5 month countertrend rally.

Gold

The gold price 6 month cycle low is in progress which should complete somewhere between $1250-$1210 (red circle). As the US$ index strengthens towards $100.00 and beyond so too will the gold price drop down into its cycle low. The next up cycle may well take gold to the $1500 region later in 2019.

Gold continued to decline this week into the cycle low. Both oscillators are dropping in support of this with the MACD some way to go yet.

Multiple breakouts occurred below the neckline of the dome top including the inclined H&S. Although a breakback occurred after penetration of 200-Dema it still seems likely that gold will drop further down into the support zone, despite potential short term price retracement back up into resistance.

The gold price decline has consolidated at 200-dema, and with the earlier declines there appears to be potential for partial price retracement in the short term, especially with the oscillators turning up.

South African Rand

The South African Rand weakened against the dollar up into resistance, and further weakening beyond $14.76 will activate the potential H&S pattern. Price has moved away from consolidating at the confluence of the MAs, and with more dollar strength further Rand weakness seems likely.

HUI / Gold Ratio

The ratio turned down sharply with multiple breakdowns as US miners began to underperform gold. It is below the MAs and has also ‘nicked’ the bottom trendline of the 7 month rally in US miners, with every indication now that the rally is close to completion.

US Miners Matrix

The chart includes the HUI Index, GDX ETF, and the Dust Bear Index, each with dome formations and break lines which have now been penetrated. This illustrates the likelihood of further movement equal to the height of the dome, which illustrates the decline and further potential decline of US miners. This will additionally impact negatively on metal prices.

Silver

Silver continues to move down into the reducing wedge, breaking down into the support zone. This continues to display as a very negative bias chart.

The 12 month chart illustrates silver dropping further down into the reducing wedge pattern, as price moves toward the triangle apex. Price is below the MAs and the breakdown does include a breakback, but the chart, in the nature of a reducing wedge pattern, indicates a potential bounce before eventual further declines.

The 3 month chart illustrates the decline range as well as the breakback to 10-Dema. The momentum remains is decidedly down, but a short term bounce is overdue.

Silver Miners

Silver miners, like US gold miners, also displays a bearish dome top and a powerful penetration of the break line down into support. This portrays a sombre picture of US silver miners in relation to a dropping silver price in the short term, although the Slow stochastic is turning up at the bottom of its range.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio continues rising overall within the rising wedge pattern, to close at 85.47. This reflects the continued silver underperformance of gold which is negative for the whole precious metals complex. The rising wedge pattern continues and seemingly has a way to go yet which presupposes continued lower precious metal prices.

General Equities

Equity markets continue to edge up towards the top with the Dow Jones now at a triple top and indicating classic symptoms of exhaustion and trend change, with fractured divergent behaviour, lower volumes and volatility, along with extreme optimism and euphoria.

Every intelligent indication points to the US rally being in the very late stages of maturation supported by overwhelming fundamental evidence of impending collapse.
So, it is simply a matter of preparing for the collapse and waiting.

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Midweek Market 18 April 2019

Apr 18th, 2019 No comments

Executive summary

Charles Dow once wrote, “To know values is to know the meaning of the market.” That quote may surprise many analysts, because Dow’s work is usually thought of as nothing more than divergence in the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages. But Dow’s actual views, best elaborated by writers like Robert Rhea, were actually about something much more fundamental: Identifying the position of the market in its complete bull or bear cycle. That’s a concept that investors have forgotten, encouraged by the illusion that the Federal Reserve’s buying of Treasury bonds is capable of saving the world. That illusion is likely to prove costly.

Probably the most useful exercise we can do at present is to examine where the US markets are in their respective cycles.


Robert Rhea in 1932 wrote the following in The Dow Theory:
There are three principal phases of a bull market:
• 1st is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business;
• 2nd is the response of stock prices to the known improvement in corporate earnings;
• 3rd is the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.

There are three, and opposite, principal phases of a bear market:
• 1st represents the abandonment of the hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices;
• 2nd reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings;
• 3rd is caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find cash.

The recent bull market clocked in as the longest in history, already exceeding those leading to the 1929 and 2000 peaks. There is little doubt that the market is long into what Rhea described as the final phase of the bull market; “the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.”


However, that doesn’t preclude a temporary improvement in the US economy and markets. China is stimulating again, and global equities have recovered with the Dow (and others) on the cusp of a new high. This all means a US Fed rate cut in the next 12 months is less likely, although still not unlikely.

Precious Metals are now beginning to look more bearish on these changing expectations plus higher highs in equities and some increased stabilization in the economy.

US Dollar

The US dollar index continues to drift sideways into the triangle apex, as it continues to strengthen overall within the rising wedge pattern. Price is well ahead of all the MAs and looks set to move higher in the next up cycle.

The dollar has formed a barrier triangle pattern since Sep 2018 which is, technically, set to catapult the dollar index up to $100.00 or higher, providing E(B) holds and is not penetrated on the downside. From an Elliott Wave point of view price has established the (A) (B) at E and is constructing the 1-2 in the 5 wave rise to (C). After completion of 2 the wave turns up to the longer and stronger 3 leading on to complete the corrective Elliott Wave (A)(B)(C) before the next impulsive 5 wave down.

The dollar is beginning to cycle up after the recent down wave which should increase momentum after the bullish Hammer candle. Price is above 200-Dema and both oscillators are beginning to turn up in support of higher prices.

Japanese Yen

The Yen weakened up through penetration of the diagonal resistance in accordance with the stronger dollar, which should continue as the US$ barrier triangle plays out to completion. Therefore the Yen will continue to weaken well up into the resistance region, together with the implications for a weaker gold price.

US Treasuries

The benchmark US 10 year Treasury yield has bottomed and is increasing as US bond values weaken. The Elliott Wave 1-2 is now launching into the longer and stronger wave 3, having bottomed at 2 C(circle) (5). This should increase yield to above the Feb 2019 high and potentially even the Oct 2018 high.


This will confirm and resume the earlier collapse in the bond market which has been disrupted by a 5 month countertrend rally.

Gold

The gold price dropped this week in resuming creation of the next cycle low which should complete within the indicated red circle, in the region of $1250-$1225. As the US$ index strengthens towards $100.00 and beyond so too will the gold price drop down into its cycle low. The next up cycle may well take gold to the $1500 region later in 2019.

Gold continued to decline this week into the cycle low. Both oscillators are dropping in support of this with the MACD some way to go yet.

The 12 month chart illustrates the bearish dome top that has formed, indicating further downside to come. There have now been multiple penetrations with every indication the gold price will descend well into the support region.


Gold has penetrated 200-Dema, the diagonal support, as well as an incline H&S pattern, and these together with the dome top should propel price further down.

The short term 3 month chart illustrates the decline acceleration and the penetrations. Penetration of 200-Dema removes the earlier divergence with silver which penetrated 200-Dema some while ago.

South African Rand

The South African Rand is consolidating in the region of confluence with the MAs, after strengthening over the last 3 weeks. This reflects also as a sideways move over the last 6 months, which might now weaken as the dollar barrier triangle pattern plays out to completion.


The Rand is positioned between support and resistance, but above 200-Dema, and the balance of probabilities with oscillators beginning to bottom and turn up suggests weakness before strength.

HUI / Gold Ratio

The ratio turned down to support and is threatening to break down further. It is below the MAs and the oscillators are dropping in support of further downside. This translates into weaker US miners compared to the weaker gold price, and could be the end of the 7 month rally in US miners.

US Miners Matrix

The chart includes the HUI Index, GDX ETF, and the Dust Bear Index, which illustrates the potential break line and the dome top pattern which indicates the likely penetration of the break line.


The HUI penetrated 200-Dema, the GDX not quite, and Dust not yet, but it seems that penetrations will occur nevertheless. It portrays a somewhat sombre picture of US miners in relation to a dropping gold price in the short term.

Silver

The 3 year chart continues to have a well-defined negative bias and silver continues to drift down further in the reducing wedge. Price has broken down into the support zone, just, and with dropping oscillators indicating further price declines.

The 12 month chart illustrates silver dropping further down into a reducing wedge pattern, as price moves toward the triangle apex. In the nature of a reducing wedge pattern, silver may enjoy a bounce before further declines although this is unlikely.


Silver actually outperformed gold in the last 4 of the last 5 days and the Slow Stochastic has turned up at the bottom of its range. But if there is a bounce it will soon be followed by further declines.

The 3 month chart illustrates silver breaking down to lower levels and below the MAs., although with comparatively stronger 4 days out of the last 5. The momentum is decidedly down to lower prices. Also, the silver miners chart is decidedly negative which is bearish for silver (see next).

Silver Miners

Silver miners, like US gold miners, also displays a bearish dome top and penetration of the break line. There are other breakdowns including 200-Dema, and diagonal support line with every indication of lower prices to come.


It portrays a somewhat sombre picture of US silver miners in relation to a dropping silver price in the short term, although the Slow stochastic is turning up at the bottom of its range.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio continues rising overall although it actually declined this week to close at 85.47. This reflects the continued silver underperformance of gold which is negative for the whole precious metals complex. The rising wedge pattern continues and seemingly has a way to go yet which presupposes continued lower precious metal prices.

General Equities

US equities remain elevated, characterised by a number of contrary indications pointing to a market top and pending trend change. There include continued lower volumes, lower volatility, higher optimism and positive sentiment, which are all classic symptoms of exhaustion and pending trend change at the market top.


Every intelligent indication points to the US rally being in the very late stages of maturation supported by overwhelming fundamental evidence of impending collapse. So, it is simply a matter of preparing for the collapse and waiting.

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Midweek Market 11 April 2019

Apr 11th, 2019 No comments

Executive summary

Commentary remains similar to last week, with US equities remaining elevated, characterised by a number of indications pointing to a market top and pending trend change. There are noticeable divergent non-confirmations between major indices and continued euphorically high investor sentiment, with every indication the US rally is in the late stages of maturation supported by overwhelming fundamental evidence of impending collapse.


The global economic slowdown is a reality with recession in some parts and the threat of recession in others. The US yield curve has inverted in very short term treasuries with the formal 10 year to 2 year still threatening, and recession in the US is expected later in 2019. The US bond market has started to normalise again, with prices declining and yields increasing, after the 5 month countertrend correction.


Global markets are sensitive to the US dollar which at the moment has had a down week in its progression through a strengthening phase. This has provided impetus to the gold market which has, correspondingly, had an up week as it progresses through a weakening phase. Markets continue to discount the US Fed’s first rate cut in the next cycle and this will assist the gold price during the remainder of 2019.

US Dollar

The US dollar index is drifting sideways as it continues to strengthen overall within the rising wedge pattern. Price is well ahead of all the MAs and looks set to move higher in the next up cycle.

The barrier triangle pattern is developing strongly to catapult the dollar up to $100.00 or higher, providing E(B) holds and is not penetrated on the downside. As the cycle turns up it will create the 1 – 2 leading to the longer and stronger 3 up leading on to complete the corrective Elliott Wave (A)(B)(C) before the next impulsive 5 wave down.

The dollar moved down this week but remains well above 200-Dema, in preparation for the next up cycle. Both oscillators are dropping and the turn up may be stalled a while.

Japanese Yen

The Yen strengthened down from resistance in accordance with the weaker dollar last week. As the US$ barrier triangle plays out to completion, so too will the Yen continue to weaken well up into the resistance region, together with the implications for a weaker gold price then.


Both oscillators are turning down suggesting the reversal will not be immediate.

US Treasuries

The benchmark US 10 year Treasury yield has bottomed and turned up, reluctantly. Once the yield rise gains momentum, creating the 1-2, so then will the Elliott Wave wave 3 start a longer and stronger rise that will eventually test the Feb 2019 high and potentially even the Oct 2018 high.


This will confirm and resume the earlier collapse in the bond market which has been disrupted by a 5 month countertrend rally.

US Yield Curve

The official US yield curve calculated on the 10 year and 2 year is still drifting sideways at 1.074, and is still some way off the inversion trigger at 1.0 or below. There is probably little doubt that global recession is coming and the media hype of inversion (usually indicating recession) is due to the shorter term Treasuries such as 2 month and 3 month, etc.

Gold

The next major 6-month cycle low in the gold price is still far from complete. As the US$ index strengthens towards $100.00 and beyond so too will the gold price drop down into its cycle low, probably in the region of $1250 to $1230. The next up cycle may well take gold to the $1500 region later in 2019.

Gold enjoyed an up week which extended the sideways drift, before starting the descent to the 6-month cycle low. Both oscillators are dropping in support of this potential decline.


US miners (GDX, HUI, etc) have enjoyed a 7-month rally which has been positive for the metal, but silver continues to underperform gold which is negative and even negative for the whole complex.

The 12 month chart illustrates the gold price moving towards the triangle apex, at the underside of diagonal resistance, and with the good price move up this week it is now well above the MAs. But with a cycle turn up in the US$, gold is likely to still drop down into the support zone despite oscillators rising.

The short term 3 month chart illustrates the minor breakout through diagonal support, which silver has not managed to do. This is another indication of the negative divergence in the two metals and the likely further drop down into support.

South African Rand

The South African Rand strengthened 6.5% against the dollar in the 2 weeks from $14.76 when Moody’s held the rating unchanged. This of course also included generic weakening in the dollar, and with the oscillators also dropping appropriately, the Rand is now vulnerable to the next weakening cycle and dollar strength.


As the US$ gains disproportionate strength, as forecast, so too will the Rand weaken: Perhaps significantly.

HUI / Gold Ratio

The ratio continued a gradual increase along the incline channel in a 7-month rally of improved US minor performance against gold. The MAs provide support in a chart that displays a positive bias that has in fact impacted positively on the gold price itself. This is now vulnerable to a potential significant reversal.

HUI Index

The HUI index itself is behaving in similar fashion with similar commentary.

GDX US miners ETF

The GDX 12 month chart is similar to the HUI Index chart, and the commentary is identical.

DUST US Gold Miners Bear Index

The Dust chart and commentary is similar to the GDX chart, except in the opposite direction being a US miners bear index.

Silver

The 3 year chart continues to have a negative bias as against gold’s which does not. Silver continues to move down into a reducing wedge pattern which implies a potential breakout to the up. Price is also just below 50-Wema and well below 200-Wema, as against gold which is well above. So, despite any pretentions to a breakout to the upside, silver is likely to break to the downside with a negative impact on the whole precious metals complex.

The 12 month chart illustrates silver dropping further down into a reducing wedge pattern, as price moves toward the triangle apex. Despite an up week with no breakout, price is still below 200-Dema in maintaining the non-conformance with gold and gold miners as they continue above 200-Dema. This is the prelude to further price declines in Silver as well as the whole precious metals complex.

The 3 month chart illustrates silver breaking down to lower levels and below the MAs., and seemingly on the cusp of a breakout. Gold does have a breakout in its 3-month chart against silver which does not, highlighting again the negative divergence between the metals and silver’s ongoing underperformance of gold.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio continues rising to close at 86.19. This reflects the continued silver underperformance of gold which is negative for the whole precious metals complex. The rising wedge pattern continues and seemingly has a way to go yet which presupposes continued lower precious metal prices.

General Equities

US equities remain elevated, characterised by a number of indications pointing to a market top and pending trend change. There are noticeable divergent non-confirmations between major indices and continued euphorically high investor sentiment, with every indication the US rally is in the late stages of maturation supported by overwhelming fundamental evidence of impending collapse.
But, the market has not topped out yet and, from an Elliott Wave point of view, it will not have until confirmation of waves to the downside are confirmed as 5-wave impulsive and those up as 3-wave corrective: No matter how imminent it may seem.

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Midweek Market 4 April 2019

Apr 4th, 2019 No comments

Executive summary

US equities remain characterised by a number of indications pointing to a market top and pending trend change. These include divergent non-confirmations between major indices and investor sentiment euphorically high, both of which indicate the US rally is in the late stage of its advance if not now actually complete. Added to this is the global economic slowdown with recession now a reality in some parts of the G20 with recession also pending in the US. Various US yield curves are beginning to invert, especially with the short term treasuries, and this has signalled loud alerts.


The US bond market has started to normalise again, with prices declining and yields increasing, after the 5 month countertrend correction that ended with short term treasury yields spiking in response to the threat of recession. The US Fed is expected to cut rates some time in 2019, and for this to happen the 2- and 3-month treasury yields need to drop.


The US dollar index is progressing through a ‘barrier’ triangle pattern which is expected to increase value by about 3.5% to 100.00 or above. This will correspondingly put other currencies under pressure as well as gold which is forecast to correct down towards the region of $1250 – $1230. Markets are beginning to discount the US Fed’s first rate cut in the next cycle and this will assist the gold price during the remainder of 2019.

US Dollar

The dollar index continues to strengthen within the rising wedge assisted by the bullish Hammer 2 weeks ago which promised further upside. Price is well ahead of all the MAs and looks set to move higher.

The barrier triangle pattern is developing strongly to catapult the dollar up to $100.00 or higher, providing E(B) holds and is not penetrated on the downside. This will complete the corrective Elliott Wave (A)(B)(C) before the next implusive 5 wave down.


The strong rise from E could well correct down short term before the thrust up continues.

The dollar moved up this week despite the down day yesterday. The Slow Stochastic has turned at the top of its range and the dollar could well correct down somewhat before the rise continues.

Japanese Yen

The reversal break back from the flag breakout has weakened the Yen up to the diagonal resistance line (blue). As the US$ barrier triangle option plays out to completion, so too will the Yen continue to weaken well up into the resistance region, together with the implications for a weaker gold price.

Both oscillators are rising which supports further US$ strength and Yen weakness.

US Treasuries

The benchmark US 10 year Treasury rally has probably terminated with the strong bounce in yield from a potential bottom. If this is the yield bottom, which is likely with the excessively high investor sentiment at 93% bond bulls, then the Elliott Wave wave 3 of 3 is in progress which will take yield higher than the Oct 2018 high (and price lower).

This will resume the earlier collapse in the bond market which has been disrupted by partial ‘inversion’ triggered by activity in the shorter term US Treasuries threatened by the next US recession.

US Yield Curve

The official yield curve calculated on the 10 year and 2 year is still drifting sideways at 1.082, and is still some way off the inversion trigger at 1.0 or below. There is probably little doubt that global recession is coming and the media hype of inversion (usually indicating recession) is due to the shorter term Treasuries such as 2 month and 3 month, etc.

Gold

Gold is traditionally pushed to higher prices by the US Fed cutting rates, and especially by the first rate cut in a cycle. Witness the gold price (top chart) after the Fed first cut rates in Jan 2001, and then again in Jul 2007. Both rate cut cycles pushed the gold price up, but action is really started by the first cut in the cycle.

Now, the US Fed is forecast to cut rates in 2019 (as the recession bites), and some would have it that that is probably going to trigger the start of the next gold bull market. That may or may not be, because in this instance the global financial and monetary conditions are just so much worse.

This is somewhat contradictory, because usually it is argued that gold goes up during inflationary times because values deteriorate during those times. Also, during inflationary times rates are increased to counter inflation, therefore it is said gold goes up when rates go up. Well, the answer is in the evidence and the evidence is in the chart above.

And the evidence says that gold goes up when rates are cut aggressively, and that happens when markets collapse and even more importantly when confidence is lost. And we are going to have enough of that in the next period.

The 5 year gold chart illustrates the historic 6-month cycle lows, with the next cycle low in progress. This and the previous cycle low has been slow in coming (at closer to 8 months) but with the anticipated stronger dollar the next gold low should be factored into planning. Timing is always difficult, but the dollar peak may be reached sooner than we think, and gold may be well supported for the rest of 2019.

The 3 year chart illustrates Gold now dropping down towards its next cycle low. The technicals are suggesting weakness ahead but the fundamentals are starting to turn positive. Markets are starting to discount a US rate cut later in 2019, and this is the trigger for the early beginning of the next gold bull market.

US miners (GDX, HUI, etc) have recently been outperforming gold which has been positive for the metal, but now have started to underperform gold with the opposite and negative impact. But silver has steadily been underperforming gold and, except for very short term corrections, this has been negative for the whole complex.

Gold has a breakout from the bear flag, dropping price down into earlier support, although still above 200-Dema. Price is still likely to drop down further into the support zone.

The short term 3 month chart illustrates the clear breakout from the bear flag, and the likely further drop down into support.

The gold Cots data illustrates the development of dilation between Large Speculators and Commercials which is Gold bearish. Price should drop down further.

South African Rand

The South African Rand has strengthened in breaking down through the rising wedge. Both oscillators are dropping indicating further strength, but as the US$ gains disproportionate strength, as forecast, so too will the Rand weaken: Perhaps significantly.

The Rand is supported at the moment by stabilised Eskom and South African economic and political prospects, plus additional support from a stable Moody’s rating.

HUI / Gold Ratio

The ratio has retraced strongly down to 200-Dema as US miners underperform gold. The MAs are providing support in a chart that still displays a positive bias. Both oscillators are dropping and the ratio is probably going lower.

HUI Index

The HUI index itself is behaving in similar fashion with similar commentary, but with slightly more positive bias.

GDX US miners ETF

The GDX 12 month chart is similar to the HUI Index chart, and the commentary is identical.

DUST US Gold Miners Bear Index

The Dust chart and commentary is similar to the GDX chart, except in the opposite direction being a US miners bear index.

Silver

The 3 year chart continues to have a negative bias with silver breaking down from the bear flag, just. Silver is well below the MAs and is likely test lower support. Both oscillators are dropping in support of this.

The 12 month chart illustrates silver dropping well below all the MAs in maintaining the non-conformance with gold and gold miners as they continue above 200-Dema. This is the prelude to further price declines in Silver as well as the whole precious metals complex.

The 3 month silver chart illustrates silver breaking down to lower levels and below the MAs.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio is rising to close at 85.77. This reflects the continued silver underperformance of gold which is negative for the whole precious metals complex. The rising wedge pattern continues and seemingly has a way to go yet which presupposes continued lower precious metal prices.

General Equities

US equities remain characterised by a number of indications pointing to a market top and pending trend change. These include divergent non-confirmations between major indices and investor sentiment euphorically high, both of which indicate the US rally is in the late stage of its advance if not now actually complete. Added to this is the global economic slowdown with recession now a reality in some parts of the G20 with recession also pending in the US. Various US yield curves are beginning to invert, especially with the short term treasuries, and this has signalled loud alerts.

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