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Weekend Market Analysis 15 Oct 2017

Oct 15th, 2017

Conclusion

Gold was strong this week and on the weekly chart it closed with a bullish Morning Star candle, but the miners are relatively not as strong which introduces a slight negative element. Also, the US$ is still poised and could breakout above 94 on the index which will delay further gold momentum. The precious metals complex is therefore still in a developing structure which may test the $1400 level in gold by year end if the miners strengthen in the near term.

International markets remain elevated, with ever smaller increases, as well as continuing negative divergences: All indicating a build-up to a correction soon.

 

US$

The US$ dropped down further from resistance at 94 to just below 200-Dema. This is still a relatively brief rally after the substantial decline since the start of 2017 and remains poised to still go either way. If it rallies decisively above 94 then it will complete an inverted ‘head and shoulders’ pattern which will intimidate the gold advance. The oscillators are moving up to support a rally.

 

 

The Dollar daily chart illustrates the stalling of Dollar decline just above weak support at 92.4 but, in contrast, the short term oscillators are high and due to drop.

 

 

US$ / Jap Yen currency pair

The US$/Jap Yen currency pair continues to drop with dropping oscillators in support, which in turn supports higher gold prices.

 

 

Gold

The long term chart illustrates the gold price rally up from re-testing long term resistance, together with the new bull market support line much lower down.

 

 

The gold weekly chart illustrates the strong week, closing with a bullish Morning Star candle, together with the strong short term support line and oscillators appearing to turn up. A higher close next week will support the move up to test $1400 by year end.

 

 

The short term chart illustrates gold’s move up through support lines, having bottomed at 200-Dema. The oscillators support the advance up. There is resistance towards the previous high at $1364.

 

 

GDX US miners ETF

GDX has advanced up through support levels, similarly to gold, but less powerfully. It needs to penetrate resistance levels ahead and while the MACD is turning up the slow Stochastic appears to be topping out.

 

 

DUST US Miners bear index

The inverse picture in the US Miners Bear Index (Dust) indicates a similar reversal to GDX, and this needs also to accelerate somewhat.

 

 

Silver

Silver turned up into region of resistance and needs to breakout through $17.75 to test previous high at $18.32. MACD is turning up but the slow Stochastic appears to be topping out.  

 

 

General Equities (Dow Jones)

There is nothing new in international equity markets which continue to advance, with ever smaller increases, towards a major correction soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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