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Midweek Market 30 Jan 2020

Jan 30th, 2020 No comments

Executive summary

US equities have started to decline amidst a degree of non-confirmations amongst major indices, which presents as a potential top still to be confirmed. Numerous indications have been developing for some time now in support of a top, and all the data and supporting impact factors need to unwind further before resolving into higher levels of certainty. This involves the complete gambit including US Treasuries, the dollar, debt and funding options, interest rates, and much more.

The start of equity decline has moved funds into bonds and the benchmark 10 year US Treasury has once again reduced yield levels which need to unfold further before resolving into bond market direction. This impacts massively on the whole question of debt and funding and the actions of central banks and interest rates. The dollar is in long term decline but has extended periods of strength, such as now. The current rally is forecast to end very soon and resume dollar weakness, which is likely to reduce the US$ Index value from 97.8 down towards 95, which in turn will strengthen the Euro and British pound, amongst others.

The gold bear market rally could now have peaked as prices start to decline, with an active sell divergence in place to propel prices lower. Silver is leading the way down as gold continues to outperform with an ever higher gold / silver ratio, which is negative for the whole precious metals complex. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos, and it is critical to identify gold’s true bottom in the period that lies ahead.

US Dollar

The US$ is in long term decline but has been in a rally since 2008, although the decline is now just visible in this long term chart. By a number of different yardsticks the long term dollar decline is likely to take the index into the low 60’s in the next 5 years, although there will no doubt be substantial partial strengthening in search for ‘safe haven’ as equity and bond markets decline.

The dollar is still correcting up after the break from the rising wedge. It has broken up through the MAs in a strong mini-rally and is now poised to resume declining down to support, with assistance from negative divergence to propel the dollar lower.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates multi-breakouts in the correction up, including penetration of a trendline and the bearish dome structure. But the rally top includes 2 bearish top candles which are likely to assist in a lower dollar.

The short term 3 month daily chart provides a closer view of the dollar triple breakout as well as the twin bearish top candles. There is also the suggestion of a reverse sell divergence in the making.

EuroDollar

The Eurodollar, as the near inverse of the dollar index, presents in multi-breakdowns as the Euro weakens against the dollar. In similar fashion, this is now likely to start strengthening anytime soon as the dollar weakens.

US Treasuries

US Treasury 10 year yield is weakening in multi-breakdowns as a consequence of increased money flows from equities to bonds, as US equities indicate a potential top. This chart structure needs to unfold further before resolving into bond market direction. This impacts massively on the whole question of debt and funding and the actions of central banks and interest rates.

Key levels in the chart present as about 1.5% at the lower end and 1.94% at the upper end. Penetration of the upper level will indicate resumption of the bond market collapse, and at the lower end as an extension of the bond bull market.

Gold

The sell divergence in the gold long term chart is impacting in lower gold prices going forward. Virtually all gold commentaries worldwide indicate higher gold prices ahead, whilst Elliott Wave analysis indicates the opposite, with the current rally being a bear market rally only with prices still likely to weaken considerably. The next gold bull market will drive price many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

The 5 year weekly chart highlights the clear sell divergence which should lead to lower gold prices. Price is still well ahead of all the moving averages and the support zones which start at $1450.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the gold reversal momentum, powered by the sell divergence, as it gathers momentum to the downside with the first support level at $1538.

The 3-month chart illustrates lower prices gathering momentum from the peak, as gold backs down from a late charge.

Importantly, gold Cots data, which is usually correct, remains gold bearish.

South African Rand

Divergence in the US$/ZAR currency pair indicates continued Rand weakness and dollar strength. The earlier contra indications have been eliminated with de-activation of the H&S pattern and the ‘Goodbye kiss’.

HUI / Gold Ratio

Decline in the HUI / Gold ratio is still powered in the post sell divergence mode. Also, the breakdown through the rising channel and bear flag has presented as a potential ‘Goodbye kiss’ which should assist in further declines.

GDX US miners ETF

The more bullish GDX continues to advance up the potential bear flag, above all the MAs. This supports a continued rising gold price which will need a decisive break lower to turn the GDX chart negative. So, investors in GDX (US gold miners) are still more confident of higher gold prices.

This pattern is also similarly reflected by the GDX Juniors, XAU, and inverse Dust (charts not shown).

Silver

The silver charts generally are more mundane with no divergence, as the general trend continues down after the recent peak. In fact, silver has actually declined more than gold, reflected in the higher gold / silver ratio. Silver is probably now unlikely to still make a late charge to higher prices. Irrespective, the next silver bull market will drive price to many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. Like gold, this battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

Silver’s non-confirmation with gold peaks is the main driver in generating lower prices, which in fact already breached earlier support levels. The chart structure now suggests yet lower prices to soon test yet lower support levels.

The 12 month chart illustrates the decline gathering momentum as silver drops faster than gold. The next support is close at $17.28.

The ominous Shooting Star candle at the peak did in fact have a strong influence on silver’s decline, as lower prices gather momentum.

As with gold, silver Cots data has a similar structure which remains silver bearish.

The decline in silver miners is powered by the post sell divergence mode. Price has broken down through the rising wedge and the bear flag which now presents as a potential ‘goodbye kiss’ to drop lower into support.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio gapped up this week to close substantially higher. This is negative for metal prices as the ratio continues to increase as gold continues to outperform silver. This trend looks likely to continue.

General Equities

The Dow Jones has started to decline amidst a degree of non-confirmations amongst major US indices, which presents as a potential top still to be confirmed. Numerous indications have been developing for some time now in support of a top, and all the data and supporting impact factors need to unwind further before resolving into higher levels of certainty. This involves the complete gambit including US Treasuries, the dollar, debt and funding options, interest rates, and much more.

Technically, this is prompted by the sell divergence after a relentless rise to new highs, after what has been the longest bull market in history since 2009. However, this is nevertheless a major topping pattern which is now threatened by eventual and final collapse.

Elliott Wave analysis of the Dow indicates completion of the various wave counts ending in a top 5 of numerous degrees which presumes the final top or very close to the final top. Once the top is confirmed it will herald the start This top is also to be the start of a serious decline that could extend into most of the next decade.

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Midweek Market 23 Jan 2020

Jan 23rd, 2020 No comments

Executive summary
US investor euphoria continues unabated, reaching extreme levels by a number of different criteria. This, despite major threats from many different directions, all as mentioned in this column numerously in the recent past. The rise since the Dec 2018 low has been relentless with ever higher highs and ever higher lows, culminating in a series of new highs. However, this is nevertheless a major topping pattern which is leading towards eventual final collapse, after what has been the longest bull market in history since 2009.

Other financial markets have tended to stall marginally, aided by the US$ which is forecast to weaken but which has steadfastly extended its rally which started at the beginning of 2018. US Treasury yields have stalled in starting to increase as world bond markets are slow to resume the long term collapse which started in mid-2016.

The gold bear market rally seems to have peaked as both precious metals and miners prices start to decline, with a multitude of sell divergences to propel prices lower. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos, and it is critical to identify gold’s true bottom in the period that lies ahead.

US Dollar

The US$ is in long term decline but has been in a rally since 2008, although the decline is now just visible in this long term chart. By a number of different yardsticks the long term dollar decline is likely to take the index into the low 60’s in the next 5 years, although there will no doubt be substantial partial strengthening in search for ‘safe haven’ as equity and bond markets decline.

The dollar is still correcting up after the break from the rising wedge. It remains stuck at the confluence of the 10- and 50-Week moving averages, still well above the 200-Week MA. The negative divergence in the chart structure will assist further declines once the rally terminates.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the bearish dome structure still in place as the dollar rally reaches increased resistance at the 200-Day moving average (green). The 3-week rally is likely to terminate in this region.

The short term 3 month daily chart provides a closer view of the triple dollar rollover as price reaches increased resistance at the 200-Day moving average (green). This, combined with added resistance from the 50-Day MA (red) is likely to assist resumption of the down trend from here.

EuroDollar

The Eurodollar continues to weaken as it reaches down to start testing the support zone. The bullish inverted dome formation is still in place as the Euro drops down through the 50-Day moving average (red). Any resumption of strength, with forecast dollar weakness, will need to break through resistance of all 3 moving averages above.

US Treasuries

US Treasury 10 year yield is showing small signs of weakness as it edges down through mini-trendlines to further delay completion of the countertrend rally. This delay may extend further before yield resumes it’s advance up towards the breakout level at 1.94%. The higher yields which appear to lie ahead will provide the structure upon which the US Treasury market will be said to be resuming its long term collapse which started in mid-2016. This will in time expose the US Government debt trap and hasten the spiral towards the collapse of the monetary system as we know it.

Gold

The sell divergence in the gold long term chart is likely to promote lower gold prices ahead, as price is still likely to weaken considerably. The next gold bull market will drive price many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

The 5 year weekly chart highlights the clear sell divergence which should lead to lower gold prices. Price is still well ahead of all the moving averages and the support zones which start at $1450.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the gold reversal momentum, powered by the sell divergence, as it gathers momentum to the downside with the first support level at $1538.

The 3-month chart illustrates lower prices gathering momentum from the peak Shooting Star reversal candle.

Gold Cots data indicates a maintained build-up of Large Commercial short positions (red declining chart) as against a maintained build-up of Large Speculator long positions (green advancing chart). This is the perfect setup in massive dilation between the two, indicating strong declining potential in gold.

Gold volatility continues to decline in a weak chart structure as a measure of continued investor lack of enthusiasm. This should support continued weaker gold prices ahead.

South African Rand

Divergence in the US$/ZAR currency pair chart indicates continued Rand weakness, but with contra indications from an activated H&S plus ‘Goodbye kiss’. Forecast dollar weakness may win the day, however.

HUI / Gold Ratio

Mild retracement up in the HUI/gold ratio continues, but the sell divergence may terminate this. The ratio continues to hug the 50-Day moving average (red) but could resume declines once it breaks free towards the 200-Day MA.

GDX US miners ETF

The more bullish GDX continues to advance up the potential bear flag, above all the MAs. This supports a continued rising gold price which will need a decisive break lower to turn the GDX chart negative.

This pattern is also reflected by the GDX Juniors, XAU, and inverse Dust (charts not shown).

Silver

The silver charts generally are more mundane with no divergence, the general trend continues down after the recent peak. Silver, probably more so than gold, could still make a late charge and go to a high exceeding the recent high at $19.69. Irrespective, the next silver bull market will drive price to many times higher but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. Like gold, this battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

Silver’s non-confirmation with gold peaks is likely to promote lower prices, and the chart structure is also promising lower prices to soon test support (black circle).

The 12 month chart illustrates the reversal gathering momentum, with the first key support level close at $17.62.

The main driver of decline potential is the ominous Shooting Star candle and the lower prices gathering momentum with first support at $17.62.

Sell divergence in silver miners is in place and should propel prices lower. But the small retracement rally is above all the MAs, providing support, and this should increase the degree of difficulty.

As with gold, silver Cots data has the identical structure indicating lower silver prices ahead.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio closed higher at 87.32 as the drift up continues to rise slowly, which is negative for metal prices, and vice versa. Gold continues to outperform silver marginally as the ratio creeps up, and this looks likely to continue further.

General Equities

The sell divergence has prompted the Dow to start turning down. The rise since the Dec 2018 low has been relentless with ever higher highs and ever higher lows, culminating in a series of new highs. However, this is nevertheless a major topping pattern which is leading towards eventual final collapse, after what has been the longest bull market in history since 2009.

Elliott Wave analysis of the Dow indicates completion of the various wave counts ending in a top 5 of numerous degrees which presumes the final top or very close to the final top. This top is also to be the start of a serious decline that could extend into most of the next decade.

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Midweek Market 16 Jan 2020

Jan 16th, 2020 No comments

Executive summary

US investor euphoria continues unabated, despite increasing threats to the international monetary system, as equity markets remain elevated and buoyed by the expectation that Modern Monetary Theory will continue to solve all the problems. In fact Ben Bernanke was heard to say this week that zero interest rates are on their way. So the longest bull market in history continues as US stock markets continue to eke out moderately higher new highs, followed in sync by most world markets, as they grind towards a climactic end when the ‘Everything bubble’ finally bursts.

Other financial markets have tended to stall marginally, aided by the US$ which is forecast to weaken but which has steadfastly extended its rally which started at the beginning of 2018. US Treasury yields have stalled in starting to increase as world bond markets are slow to resume the long term collapse which started in mid-2016.

The gold bear market rally seems to have peaked as both precious metals and miners prices start to decline, with a multitude of sell divergences to propel prices lower. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos, and it is critical to identify gold’s true bottom in the period that lies ahead.

US Dollar

The US$ is in long term decline but has been in a rally since 2008, although the decline is now just visible in this long term chart. By a number of different yardsticks the long term dollar decline is likely to take the index into the low 60’s in the next 5 years, although there will no doubt be substantial partial strengthening in search for ‘safe haven’ as equity and bond markets decline.

The earlier dollar break from the rising wedge is likely to lead to yet lower values. There is negative divergence in the chart structure to assist further declines but the dollar is stuck at the 50-Week MA (red) support for now.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the bearish dome structure which will lead to lower dollar values, and the dollar already appears to be turning down at the confluence of the 50- and 200-Day MAs (black circle). There are also a number of developing H&S patterns which could be triggered to add additional impetus.

The short term 3 month daily chart provides a closer view of the dollar rollover at the combined 50- and 200-Day MAs.

EuroDollar

The Eurodollar starts to strengthen again as it moves up from the 50-Day MA (red) towards the 200-Day MA (green), assisted by the bullish inverted dome pattern. Once the 200-Day MA is penetrated it will provide strong support for further gains.

US Treasuries

Although the US Treasury countertrend rally completion is all but confirmed, final yield breakout at 1.94% continues to stall. There is the first sign of minor weakness as a minor trendline is breached (black circle) as the attempt at breakout continues to delay. Breaching the key breakout level at 1.94% yield will confirm the trend which nevertheless still looks set to occur soon. The higher yields which appear to lie ahead will provide the structure upon which the US Treasury market will be said to be resuming its long term collapse which started in mid-2016. This will in time expose the US Government debt trap and hasten the spiral towards the collapse of the monetary system as we know it.

Gold

The strong gold bear market rally highlights a clear sell divergence which indicates likely lower gold prices ahead. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

The 5 year weekly chart also highlights the sell divergence which should lead to lower gold prices. Price is still well ahead of all the moving averages and the support zones which start at $1450.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the gold reversal momentum, powered by the sell divergence, as it approaches the first support level at $1521.

The 3-month chart illustrates the peak and ominous Shooting Star reversal candle powering price to lower levels.

Gold Cots data indicates a continued build-up of Large Commercial short positions (red declining chart) as against a continued build-up of Large Speculator long positions (green advancing chart). This is the perfect setup in massive dilation between the two, indicating strong declining potential in gold.

South African Rand

The US$/ZAR currency pair chart indicates divergence: Rand sell and dollar buy, indicating Rand weakness ahead. However, this can be contradicted in some way by forecast dollar weakness ahead and the potential ‘good bye kiss’ at the H&S neckline which both support Rand strength.

HUI / Gold Ratio

There is HUI/gold retracement up after the bear flag breakout, which could also be a potential ‘goodbye kiss’. But the more powerful signal is a sell divergence (red circles) which is likely to send the ratio lower. This could mean that miners will lead gold to lower prices.

GDX US miners ETF

The GDX is drifting sideways however with no sell divergence. Price of this US miner ETF is supported by the 50-Day MA (red) with no indication of a break to lower prices.

GDX Junior Gold ETF

The GDX Juniors are more bearish however and they too have a sell divergence with a potential break to lower prices into support. There is also the potential for a bear flag break to lower levels.

XAU Gold and Silver Philadelphia Index

The XAU chart is also more bearish with a sell divergence and potential bear flag break.

Dust US Miners Bear Index

The inverse Dust chart also indicates a buy divergence which should lead to higher prices. This means lower metals and miners prices, being an inverse bear index.

Silver

The silver charts generally are more mundane with no divergence. The strong bear market rally has not made a new high and therefore has a non-confirmation with gold, which is typical of a trend change and generally lower prices ahead. This could indicate that the top is in, but silver could also make a late charge to a new high. Irrespective, the next silver bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. Like gold, this battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

Silver fails to make a new high and could next test support which starts at about $17.80.

The 12 month chart illustrates the reversal gathering momentum.

The main driver of decline potential is the ominous Shooting Star candle and the lower prices gathering momentum with first support at $17.80.

The US silver miners have made a new high and therefore have a non-confirmation with silver itself. This chart also has a sell divergence which should promote lower prices. It seems in the case of silver, it may well be the miners that drive metal prices lower.

As with gold, silver Cots data has the identical structure indicating lower silver prices ahead.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio closed slightly higher at 86.39 as the drift in a rising wedge continues to rise slowly, which is negative for metal prices, and vice versa. Gold continues to outperform silver marginally as the ratio creeps up, and this looks likely to continue further.

General Equities

The Dow Jones continues to edge higher to moderately ever higher new highs, in developing a major topping pattern which is leading towards eventual final collapse. There is also a clear sell divergence which should perhaps now trigger some sort of change in breaking the mould of higher highs and higher lows.

Elliott Wave analysis of the Dow indicates completion of the various wave counts ending in a top 5 of numerous degrees which presumes the final top or very close to the final top. This top is also to be the start of a serious decline that could extend into most of the next decade.

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Midweek Market 9 Jan 2020

Jan 9th, 2020 No comments

Executive summary

The debt trap which the US Government is in will be exposed as US Treasury Bond yields continue to rise, as forecast. Markets are not aware of this yet, but the dollar- based monetary system is spinning out of control. This will all unfold and be revealed as the credit cycle reaches its inevitable crisis stage, which the world is now entering.

Monetary inflation is still camouflaged. As governments have to increasingly fund themselves through QE, central banks will be forced to inflate even more so to pay for deficits significantly greater than currently forecast. Markets will eventually stop believing government inflation pronouncements after which the interest cost of government funding will increase exponentially as all fiat currencies then lose purchasing power at an accelerating rate.

In a world where all fiat currencies will face enormous challenges such as servicing exponentially increasing debt, using yardsticks such as trade weighted indices will be misleading. The best gauges of value stated in fiat currencies will be commodities, particularly gold and silver.

In spite of this, US stock markets continue to eke out moderately higher new highs as it evolves towards the eventual systemic collapse which has been developing in earnest for about 50 years now, as the longest bull market in history (since 2009) winds down towards its climactic end. Modern Monetary Theory has created the ‘Everything bubble’ in all asset classes as global debt rises exponentially with interest rates at historic lows in order to service debt with an ever increasing abundance of fiat money that continues to lose all its value when measured against gold.

The Dow Jones continues to edge higher to moderately ever higher new highs, in developing a major topping pattern which is leading towards final collapse.

US Treasury yields have started to increase and world bond markets are resuming the long term collapse which started in mid-2016. The US$ is in long term decline although currently enjoying a temporary rally as the Euro, UK pound, and other majors, start a strengthening cycle.

Gold is in a strong bear market rally which has made a new 7 year high, not matched by silver or major US miners in a number of non-confirmations typical at trend changes. There are a number of factors indicating that the top is in and that the decline has resumed. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

US Dollar

The US$ is in long term decline but has been in a rally since 2008, although the decline is now just visible in this long term chart. By a number of different yardsticks the long term dollar decline is likely to take the index into the low 60’s in the next 5 years, although there will no doubt be substantial partial strengthening in search for ‘safe haven’ as equity and bond markets decline.

Having penetrated down through the rising wedge and 50-Wema (red), the dollar is in a rally which is testing 50-Wema on the upside. However, negative divergence and the chart structure suggests that further weakness is likely to test the support zone soon.

The daily 12 month chart illustrates the bearish dome structure together with a number of H&S necklines which, once activated, will accelerate dollar declines. The rally is approaching strong resistance at the 50- and 200-Day moving averages.

The short term 3 month daily chart provides a closer view of the dollar rally in a mini-break up to test resistance at the MAs.

EuroDollar

The Eurodollar as the inverse of the dollar is now testing 50-Dema on the downside. However, there is strong support from the bullish inverted dome pattern which is likely to propel the Euro up by the depth of the dome. Once this activates 200-Dema will be penetrated which will provide strong support thereafter.

A long term 10 year view of the Euro Dollar highlights the breakout of the reducing wedge which should propel the currency up by the height of the wedge, which is substantial.

US Treasuries

The US Treasury countertrend rally completion is all but confirmed as the breakouts continue to hold. Breaching the key breakout level at 1.94% yield will confirm the trend which looks set to occur soon. Higher yields do now appear to lie ahead and this provides the structure upon which the US Treasury market will be said to be resuming its long term collapse which started in mid-2016. This will in time expose the US Government debt trap and hasten the spiral towards the collapse of the monetary system as we know it.

Gold

Gold is in a strong bear market rally which has made a new 7 year high, not matched by silver or major US miners in a number of non-confirmations typical at trend changes. There are a number of factors indicating that the top is in and that the decline has resumed. The next gold bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. This battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

Gold has a breakout to a new high within the rising channel. Price is well ahead of all the moving averages and the support zones. There are no resistance zones and support starts at $1450.

Gold has multiple breakouts to a new high, but the start of the decline is in the form of an ominous-looking reversal pattern.

The 3-month chart illustrates the peak and the ominous Shooting Star reversal candle. The first support level is down at $1521, and all well ahead of all moving averages.

Gold volatility has increased, but in a non-confirmation with the pattern of the gold increase to a new high.

South African Rand

The Rand breakout to strength is still active, but is correcting to weakness as the dollar rallies. The chart structure is still positive with more Rand strength as the dollar rally turns to weakness.

HUI / Gold Ratio

The bear flag breakout signals lower ratio prices as US miners are outperformed by gold itself. The 50-day moving average has been penetrated on the downside which should assist in propelling the ratio to further weakness. This could mean that miners will lead gold to lower prices.

GDX US miners ETF

The GDX chart is less bullish than the HUI/Gold chart and has not achieved a new high in creating non-confirmation with gold. This is bearish which will be confirmed if the bear flag proves to be real.

GDX Junior Gold ETF

The GDX Juniors are more bullish in making a new high, with no non-confirmation with gold. It also could have a bear flag in the making which could be bearish.

XAU Gold and Silver Philadelphia Index

The XAU chart is also more bullish and could also have a bear flag in the making.

Dust US Miners Bear Index

The inverse Dust chart also indicates a new low within a declining channel with strong resistance above. This indicates a continued strong gold price.

Silver

Silver is in a strong bear market rally but has not made a new high and therefore has a non-confirmation with gold, which is typical of a trend change. This could indicate that the top is in, but silver could also make a late charge to a new high. Irrespective, the next silver bull market will drive price to many times higher than the 2011 high but will be preceded by a sharp decline first. Like gold, this battle will be fought in a world of approaching monetary and political chaos.

Silver fails to make a new high and could next test support which starts at about $17.80.

The Silver rally includes multiple breakouts but not to a new high. This non-confirmation could lead to declines with the key support level down at $16.55.

The main driver of decline potential is the ominous Shooting Star candle with first support at $17.80.

The US silver miners have made a new high and therefore have a non-confirmation with silver itself. This is an additional driver of decline potential, and the miner chart also illustrates the potential bear flag which could be an additional driver of decline potential. Key support is at $30.00.

Gold : Silver Ratio

The gold / silver ratio closed slightly higher at 85.88 as the drift in a rising wedge continues to rise slowly, which is negative for metal prices, and vice versa. Gold continues to outperform silver marginally as the ratio creeps up, and this looks likely to continue further.

General Equities

The Dow Jones continues to edge higher to moderately ever higher new highs, in developing a major topping pattern which is leading towards eventual final collapse.

In accordance with Elliott Wave Theory the Dow has been building a bull market since the Lehman collapse in 2009 that has been impulsive in a number of 5 wave advances of varying degrees, interspersed with corrective abc waves. This has evolved in its structure to what is now believed to be its final 5th wave, or certainly very close to the final top. This top is also to be the start of a serious decline that could extend into most of the next decade.

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